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CLE 6 / DET 4
CLECleveland Guardians55%
DETDetroit Tigers45%

at Comerica Park

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
CLEAway starterFoster GriffinConfirmed
Model pickCLE moneyline55%Model 20260810_auto
DETHome starterFramber ValdezConfirmed
CLE55%ML +109
Base model probability55%Moneyline only
DET45%ML -128

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#3
Total lean · analyst-timeUnder
Model-market gap · analyst-time9.2 pts

Model has CLE at 55.1% while market implies 54.1% home, a ~9-point gap with the model taking the team with the worse record (58-62) and lower runs per game (4.5 vs 7.2). Griffin's 3.31 ERA and 1.11 WHIP are the better line versus Valdez's 4.17/1.37, but that isn't enough to overturn the market. Model's 9.15 total sits above the 8.0 line in a neutral park behind the better starter, so I lean under.

Large model-market gapoffense defense mismatch

Projection Context

Projected margin0.6
Projected total9.2
Market total8.0
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Foster GriffinCLE starter / away
Projected K5.1Actual 3 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O +125 betrivers / U -156 fanduel5 books at this line
Model over 5.539%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.596%over
O 2.587%over
O 3.573%under
O 4.556%under
O 5.539%under
O 6.525%under
O 7.515%under
O 8.58%under
O 9.54%under
O 10.52%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.

Framber ValdezDET starter / home
Projected K4.4Actual 3 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +107 draftkings / U -128 fanduel7 books at this line
Model over 4.544%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.592%over
O 2.580%over
O 3.562%under
O 4.544%under
O 5.528%under
O 6.516%under
O 7.58%under
O 8.54%under
O 9.52%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Closing odds

Market consensus+109 / -128CLE / DET moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+158)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.0O -115 / U -105
31 books30 ML23 run line22 total