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scheduled
BALBaltimore Orioles51%
DETDetroit Tigers49%

at Comerica Park

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
BALAway starterTrevor RogersConfirmed
Model pickBAL moneyline51%Model 20260727_auto
DETHome starterTarik SkubalConfirmed
BAL51%ML +150
Base model probability51%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability38%Selected moneyline pick
DET49%ML -179

Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#2
Total leanOver
Model-market gap12.4 pts

Model has BAL 50.8% but market implies DET 61.4% — a 10.6pp gap flags large disagreement. Skubal's 2.70 ERA, 11.0 K/9, 0.92 WHIP across 90 IP is elite; Rogers' 4.17 ERA is pedestrian. Market correctly favors the ace at home. Model total of 8.55 vs market 7.5 suggests offense upside; BAL's .662 OPS supports over lean.

Large model-market gap

Projection Context

Projected margin0.3
Projected total9.9
Market total7.5
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Updated
Market
Trevor RogersBAL starter / away
Projected K4.8
Market lineN/ANo two-sided pregame line
Model over lineN/A
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.595%
O 2.585%
O 3.570%
O 4.552%
O 5.536%
O 6.522%
O 7.512%
O 8.57%
O 9.53%
O 10.51%
O 11.51%

Model probability that the starter exceeds each strikeout line.

Tarik SkubalDET starter / home
Projected K8.1
Market lineN/ANo two-sided pregame line
Model over lineN/A
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.5100%
O 2.598%
O 3.595%
O 4.589%
O 5.580%
O 6.568%
O 7.555%
O 8.542%
O 9.530%
O 10.521%
O 11.513%

Model probability that the starter exceeds each strikeout line.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context

Market consensus+150 / -179BAL / DET moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+124)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.5O -105 / U -115
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total