MLB / mlb / live
KCR 5 / DET 4KCRKansas City Royals41%
DETDetroit Tigers59%
at Comerica Park
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedKCRAway starterLuinder AvilaConfirmed
Model pickDET moneyline59%Model 20260720_auto
DETHome starterFramber ValdezConfirmed
KCR41%ML +159
Base model probability59%Moneyline only
DET59%ML -190
Projection Context
Projected margin0.8
Projected total8.8
Market total9.0
Total leanUnder
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Pitcher Strikeout Forecast
Final / frozen pregame forecast / UpdatedMarket
Lines
Luinder AvilaKCR starter / away
Projected K4.3Actual 2 K / Under 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O -152 betrivers / U +134 fanduel5 books at this line
Model over 3.561%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.592%over
O 2.579%under
O 3.561%under
O 4.542%under
O 5.526%under
O 6.515%under
O 7.58%under
O 8.54%under
O 9.52%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.
Framber ValdezDET starter / home
Projected K4.3Actual 4 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -135 bovada / U +116 draftkings7 books at this line
Model over 4.542%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.592%over
O 2.579%over
O 3.561%over
O 4.542%under
O 5.526%under
O 6.515%under
O 7.57%under
O 8.54%under
O 9.52%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.
Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus+159 / -190KCR / DET moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+107)Home spread price shown for context
Total context9.0O -110 / U -111
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total