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PHI 5 / DET 0
PHIPhiladelphia Phillies47%
DETDetroit Tigers53%

at Comerica Park

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
PHIAway starterZack WheelerConfirmed
Model pickDET moneyline53%Model 20260706_auto
DETHome starterTarik SkubalConfirmed
PHI47%ML +112
Base model probability53%Moneyline only
DET53%ML -132

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#1
Total lean · analyst-timeUnder
Model-market gap · analyst-time1.5 pts

Model sees DET 52.7%, market has 45.9% — 6.8pp gap favoring home. Wheeler (2.28 ERA, 0.91 WHIP in 87 IP) is the sharper ace vs Skubal (3.06 ERA, 70.7 IP). Model's 8.86 total is 1.86 runs over market's 7.0 in an ace matchup at neutral park. Lean PHI, under on total; model overrates DET offense (5.6 RPG driven by sample variance).

total far from marketace matchup

Projection Context

Projected margin0.1
Projected total8.9
Market total7.0
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Zack WheelerPHI starter / away
Projected K6.6Actual 10 K / Over 7.5
Best price at 7.57.5O +110 bovada / U -130 draftkings7 books at this line
Model over 7.535%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.599%over
O 2.595%over
O 3.588%over
O 4.577%over
O 5.563%over
O 6.548%over
O 7.535%over
O 8.523%over
O 9.514%over
O 10.58%under
O 11.55%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 10 strikeouts.

Tarik SkubalDET starter / home
Projected K7.3Actual 5 K / Under 7.5
Best price at 7.57.5O -118 betrivers / U +100 draftkings6 books at this line
Model over 7.544%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.599%over
O 2.597%over
O 3.592%over
O 4.583%over
O 5.572%under
O 6.558%under
O 7.544%under
O 8.531%under
O 9.521%under
O 10.513%under
O 11.58%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Closing odds

Market consensus+112 / -132PHI / DET moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+169)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.0O -116 / U -104
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total