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HOU 8 / DET 6
HOUHouston Astros58%
DETDetroit Tigers42%

at Comerica Park

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
HOUAway starterKai-Wei TengConfirmed
Model pickHOU moneyline58%Model 20260622_auto
DETHome starterFramber ValdezConfirmed
HOU58%ML +115
Base model probability58%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability45%Selected moneyline pick
DET42%ML -136

Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#3
Total leanUnder
Model-market gap13.6 pts

Model favors HOU 58.3% vs market's 44.9% implied — an 13.4pp gap triggers the disagreement flag. DET's 0.4 RPG offense is catastrophically bad over 82 games; HOU's 0.8 RPG isn't good but massive relative comparison exists. Market knows DET can't score; Valdez at home with 3.91 ERA facing a lineup this weak argues under the 8.5 total. Model total of 7.34 is 1.16 runs under market.

Large model-market gap

Projection Context

Projected margin0.7
Projected total9.4
Market total8.5
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Kai-Wei TengHOU starter / away
Projected K5.1Actual 1 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O +126 fanduel / U -143 betrivers6 books at this line
Model over 5.539%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.596%under
O 2.587%under
O 3.573%under
O 4.556%under
O 5.539%under
O 6.525%under
O 7.515%under
O 8.58%under
O 9.54%under
O 10.52%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 1 strikeouts.

Framber ValdezDET starter / home
Projected K4.9Actual 2 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -140 betmgm / U +120 fanduel7 books at this line
Model over 4.553%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.595%over
O 2.585%under
O 3.571%under
O 4.553%under
O 5.536%under
O 6.523%under
O 7.513%under
O 8.57%under
O 9.53%under
O 10.52%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context

Market consensus+115 / -136HOU / DET moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+151)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.5O -113 / U -109
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total