MLB / mlb / live
HOU 2 / DET 1HOUHouston Astros48%
DETDetroit Tigers52%
at Comerica Park
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedHOUAway starterTatsuya ImaiConfirmed
Model pickDET moneyline52%Model 20260622_auto
DETHome starterTroy MeltonConfirmed
HOU48%ML +102
Base model probability52%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability53%Selected moneyline pick
DET52%ML -122
Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.
Projection Context
Projected margin0.2
Projected total9.4
Market total9.0
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Pitcher Strikeout Forecast
Final / frozen pregame forecast / UpdatedMarket
Lines
Tatsuya ImaiHOU starter / away
Projected K4.9Actual 10 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O +105 bovada / U -117 draftkings7 books at this line
Model over 5.537%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.595%over
O 2.586%over
O 3.571%over
O 4.554%over
O 5.537%over
O 6.523%over
O 7.513%over
O 8.57%over
O 9.54%over
O 10.52%under
O 11.51%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 10 strikeouts.
Troy MeltonDET starter / home
Projected K4.1Actual 6 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +125 betonlineag / U -148 fanduel6 books at this line
Model over 4.539%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.591%over
O 2.577%over
O 3.558%over
O 4.539%over
O 5.524%over
O 6.513%under
O 7.56%under
O 8.53%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.
Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.
Odds & Market Context
Market consensus+102 / -122HOU / DET moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+160)Home spread price shown for context
Total context9.0O -118 / U -105
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total