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CHW 4 / DET 5
CHWChicago White Sox51%
DETDetroit Tigers49%

at Comerica Park

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
CHWAway starterDavis MartinConfirmed
Model pickCHW moneyline51%Model 20260616_auto
DETHome starterKeider MonteroConfirmed
CHW51%ML +100
Base model probability51%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability48%Selected moneyline pick
DET49%ML -120

Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#5
Total leanOver
Model-market gap3.7 pts

Model coin flip (51.5% CHW) exactly matches market (51.4% DET). Both pitchers decent: Martin 3.31 ERA / 9.15 K9, Montero 3.67 ERA / 1.02 WHIP in ~75+ IP each. No structural comparison either way on side. Model total 8.80 vs market 8.5 suggests slight over lean in neutral park.

Projection Context

Projected margin0.5
Projected total10.2
Market total8.5
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Davis MartinCHW starter / away
Projected K6.0Actual 4 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O +126 fanduel / U -149 draftkings6 books at this line
Model over 5.554%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.598%over
O 2.593%over
O 3.583%over
O 4.570%under
O 5.554%under
O 6.539%under
O 7.526%under
O 8.516%under
O 9.59%under
O 10.55%under
O 11.52%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.

Keider MonteroDET starter / home
Projected K3.9Actual 3 K / Under 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O -113 betrivers / U +104 draftkings7 books at this line
Model over 3.555%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.590%over
O 2.574%over
O 3.555%under
O 4.536%under
O 5.521%under
O 6.511%under
O 7.55%under
O 8.52%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context

Market consensus+100 / -120CHW / DET moneyline
Run line context-1.0 (+132)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.5O -105 / U -115
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total