MLB / mlb / live
CHW 1 / DET 4CHWChicago White Sox43%
DETDetroit Tigers57%
at Comerica Park
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedCHWAway starterSean NewcombConfirmed
Model pickDET moneyline57%Model 20260616_auto
DETHome starterTroy MeltonConfirmed
CHW43%ML +105
Base model probability57%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability53%Selected moneyline pick
DET57%ML -122
Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.
Projection Context
Projected margin0.4
Projected total9.8
Market total9.0
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Pitcher Strikeout Forecast
Final / frozen pregame forecast / UpdatedMarket
Lines
Sean NewcombCHW starter / away
Projected K3.4Actual 4 K
Market lineN/ANo two-sided pregame line
Model over lineN/A
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.585%over
O 2.566%over
O 3.545%over
O 4.527%under
O 5.514%under
O 6.57%under
O 7.53%under
O 8.51%under
O 9.50%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.
Troy MeltonDET starter / home
Projected K4.1Actual 5 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +130 fanduel / U -138 draftkings6 books at this line
Model over 4.540%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.591%over
O 2.577%over
O 3.558%over
O 4.540%over
O 5.524%under
O 6.513%under
O 7.57%under
O 8.53%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.
Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.
Odds & Market Context
Market consensus+105 / -122CHW / DET moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+159)Home spread price shown for context
Total context9.0O -105 / U -115
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total