MLB / mlb / live
MIN 6 / DET 4MINMinnesota Twins56%
DETDetroit Tigers44%
at Comerica Park
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedMINAway starterMike Paredes
Model pickMIN moneyline56%Model 20260414_1
DETHome starterFramber Valdez
MIN56%ML +145
Base model probability56%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability39%Selected moneyline pick
DET44%ML -175
Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#8
Total leanUnder
Model-market gap16.6 pts
Model picks MIN at 58.6% but market has DET at 60.8%. Away pitcher is TBD fallback (team's recent starter avg: 4.02 ERA, 10.11 K/9). Valdez's 4.21 ERA in 72.7 IP is legitimate but unspectacular. Market disagreement plus pitcher uncertainty argues for lean confidence. Total model 9.14 vs market 9.5 suggests slight under lean given fallback pitcher noise.
pitcher data fallbackLarge model-market gap
Projection Context
Projected margin0.9
Projected total9.1
Market total9.5
Total leanUnder
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context
Market consensus+145 / -175MIN / DET moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+115)Home spread price shown for context
Total context9.5O -110 / U -110
32 books31 ML22 run line22 total