MLB / mlb / live
MIN 4 / DET 10MINMinnesota Twins55%
DETDetroit Tigers45%
at Comerica Park
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedMINAway starterTaj Bradley
Model pickMIN moneyline55%Model 20260414_1
DETHome starterTroy Melton
MIN55%ML +110
Base model probability55%Moneyline only
DET45%ML -128
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#7
Total lean · analyst-timeOver
Model-market gap · analyst-time9.4 pts
Model favors MIN 55.2% vs market 45.9% (large disagreement flag). Bradley's 2.08 ERA with 18.69 K/9 in 4.1 IP is micro-sample noise; Melton's missing stats suggest fallback but DET home has value. Market likely correct here. Total: model 9.09 vs market 8.5 in neutral park argues mild over lean.
Large model-market gap
Projection Context
Projected margin0.6
Projected total9.1
Market total8.5
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus+110 / -128MIN / DET moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+160)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.5O -120 / U +100
33 books32 ML23 run line23 total