MLB / mlb / live
LAA 0 / DET 4LAALos Angeles Angels49%
DETDetroit Tigers51%
at Comerica Park
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedLAAAway starterJosé Soriano
Model pickDET moneyline51%Model 20260414_1
DETHome starterCasey Mize
LAA49%ML -105
Base model probability51%Moneyline only
DET51%ML -111
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#9
Total lean · analyst-timeUnder
Model-market gap · analyst-time3.2 pts
Model predicts 9.06 runs vs market 7.5 — a 1.56-run gap triggers total_far_from_market. DET offense is league-worst at 2.7 RPG, .582 OPS. Soriano's 0.00 ERA in 6.0 IP is tiny sample noise. Mize has no ERA/WHIP data despite 10 starts, unclear if injury or missing stats. Model moneyline is coin-flip (50.6% vs market 53.8%), no comparison either side. Lean under given DET offensive futility.
total far from market
Projection Context
Projected margin0.2
Projected total9.1
Market total7.5
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus-105 / -111LAA / DET moneyline
Run line context1.0 (-155)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.5O -110 / U -110
32 books31 ML24 run line23 total