MLB / mlb / live
LAA 0 / DET 4LAALos Angeles Angels49%
DETDetroit Tigers51%
at Comerica Park
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedLAAAway starterJosé Soriano
Model pickDET moneyline51%Model 20260414_1
DETHome starterCasey Mize
LAA49%ML -105
Base model probability51%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability51%Selected moneyline pick
DET51%ML -111
Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#9
Total leanUnder
Model-market gap0.1 pts
Model predicts 9.06 runs vs market 7.5 — a 1.56-run gap triggers total_far_from_market. DET offense is league-worst at 2.7 RPG, .582 OPS. Soriano's 0.00 ERA in 6.0 IP is tiny sample noise. Mize has no ERA/WHIP data despite 10 starts, unclear if injury or missing stats. Model moneyline is coin-flip (50.6% vs market 53.8%), no comparison either side. Lean under given DET offensive futility.
total far from market
Projection Context
Projected margin0.2
Projected total9.1
Market total7.5
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context
Market consensus-105 / -111LAA / DET moneyline
Run line context1.0 (-155)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.5O -110 / U -110
32 books31 ML24 run line23 total