MLB / mlb / live
SEA 3 / DET 7SEASeattle Mariners52%
DETDetroit Tigers48%
at Comerica Park
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedSEAAway starterBryan Woo
Model pickSEA moneyline52%Model 20260414_1
DETHome starterFramber Valdez
SEA52%ML -123
Base model probability52%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability53%Selected moneyline pick
DET48%ML +104
Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#7
Total leanUnder
Model-market gap0.8 pts
Model has SEA 52.2%, market 52.8% — near consensus. Valdez 1.50 ERA in 60 IP is elite, Woo 3.00 with 13.5 K/9 also strong. Model's 9.03 total vs market 7.5 is a 1.5-run miss; ace matchup and pitcher quality argue under. DET offense (.582 OPS) is league-worst.
total far from marketace matchup
Projection Context
Projected margin0.3
Projected total9.0
Market total7.5
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context
Market consensus-123 / +104SEA / DET moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-165)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.5O -118 / U -104
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total