MLB / mlb / live
CLE 3 / DET 1CLECleveland Guardians42%
DETDetroit Tigers58%
at Comerica Park
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedCLEAway starterJoey Cantillo
Model pickDET moneyline58%Model 20260414_1
DETHome starterCasey Mize
CLE42%ML +101
Base model probability58%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability52%Selected moneyline pick
DET58%ML -120
Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#3
Total leanUnder
Model-market gap5.2 pts
Model favors DET at 57.5% vs market 51.7%, but DET is 20-30 scoring 2.6 RPG (.582 OPS) while CLE is 29-22 at 5.6 RPG. Missing pitcher stats for Mize makes model side suspect. Model total of 9.04 vs market 7.0 is a 2-run structural miss—likely underweighting DET's anemic offense. Lean CLE and under.
total far from marketoffense defense mismatch
Projection Context
Projected margin0.5
Projected total9.0
Market total7.0
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context
Market consensus+101 / -120CLE / DET moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+172)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.0O -117 / U -103
32 books31 ML24 run line23 total