MLB / mlb / live
LAA 10 / DET 6LAALos Angeles Angels37%
DETDetroit Tigers63%
at Comerica Park
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedLAAAway starterJack Kochanowicz
Model pickDET moneyline63%Model 20260414_1
DETHome starterKeider Montero
LAA37%ML +115
Base model probability63%Moneyline only
DET63%ML -136
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#2
Total lean · analyst-timeOver
Model-market gap · analyst-time7.7 pts
Model has DET 62.9% vs market 55.2% — a 7.7pp gap favoring the home side. But DET scores just 2.4 RPG (.582 OPS) while LAA scores 3.4 RPG (.860 OPS). Kochanowicz's 11.25 ERA in 4 IP is tiny sample noise, but LAA's offensive comparison is real over 54 games. Market likely right; lean LAA. Total 8.9 vs 8.5 line suggests mild over in a hitter-friendly context.
Projection Context
Projected margin1.2
Projected total8.9
Market total9.0
Total leanUnder
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus+115 / -136LAA / DET moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+150)Home spread price shown for context
Total context9.0O -105 / U -115
32 books31 ML24 run line23 total