MLB / mlb / live
CLE 4 / DET 3CLECleveland Guardians46%
DETDetroit Tigers54%
at Comerica Park
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedCLEAway starterParker Messick
Model pickDET moneyline54%Model 20260414_1
DETHome starterKeider Montero
CLE46%ML -125
Base model probability54%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability47%Selected moneyline pick
DET54%ML +105
Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#4
Total leanOver
Model-market gap6.8 pts
Model likes DET at 53.5% vs market's 46.9%, but CLE has superior offense (5.6 vs 2.5 RPG) and better record (27-22 vs 20-28). Missing pitcher stats (both null ERA/WHIP) creates uncertainty. Model's 9.31 total is 1.3 runs above market 8.0; lean over given DET's weak pitching staff context.
offense defense mismatch
Projection Context
Projected margin0.1
Projected total9.3
Market total8.0
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context
Market consensus-125 / +105CLE / DET moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-162)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.0O -108 / U -114
32 books31 ML24 run line23 total