MLB / mlb / live
CLE 8 / DET 2CLECleveland Guardians42%
DETDetroit Tigers58%
at Comerica Park
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedCLEAway starterSlade Cecconi
Model pickDET moneyline58%Model 20260414_1
DETHome starterFramber Valdez
CLE42%ML +127
Base model probability58%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability58%Selected moneyline pick
DET58%ML -148
Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#1
Total leanOver
Model-market gap0.0 pts
Model picks DET at 57.5% but CLE is the superior team (26-22 vs 20-27, 5.6 RPG vs 2.3 RPG, .600 OPS vs .582 OPS). Cecconi's 12.46 ERA in 4.1 IP per start is atrocious but DET offense is MLB-worst at 2.3 RPG. Valdez 1.50 ERA in only 6.0 IP per start screams small sample. Model total 9.29 vs market 8.0 suggests over lean given Cecconi's struggles.
offense defense mismatch
Projection Context
Projected margin0.3
Projected total9.3
Market total8.0
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context
Market consensus+127 / -148CLE / DET moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+143)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.0O -110 / U -110
31 books30 ML23 run line22 total