MLB / mlb / live
BOS 10 / DET 3BOSBoston Red Sox42%
DETDetroit Tigers58%
at Comerica Park
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedBOSAway starterJovani Morán
Model pickDET moneyline58%Model 20260414_1
DETHome starterFramber Valdez
BOS42%ML +148
Base model probability58%Moneyline only
DET58%ML -175
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#10
Total lean · analyst-timeNo total lean
Model-market gap · analyst-time2.8 pts
Jovani Morán has 2.0 IP this season—essentially an opener or bulk guy, not a traditional starter. Model treats this as ace_matchup based on Valdez's 1.50 ERA in 6 IP, but both samples are tiny. Boston's .736 OPS vastly exceeds Detroit's .582, yet model leans DET at 58%. Market implies 61% DET. With pitcher uncertainty and small-sample ERA noise, I have no comparison here.
ace matchup
Projection Context
Projected margin0.8
Projected total8.8
Market total8.0
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus+148 / -175BOS / DET moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+120)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.0O -118 / U -108
31 books29 ML24 run line21 total