MLB / mlb / live
TEX 5 / DET 4TEXTexas Rangers59%
DETDetroit Tigers41%
at Comerica Park
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedTEXAway starterMacKenzie Gore
Model pickTEX moneyline59%Model 20260414_1
DETHome starterJack Flaherty
TEX59%ML 0
Base model probability59%Moneyline only
DET41%ML -118
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#8
Total leanUnder
Model-market gap10.8 pts
Model loves TEX at 58.6% while market has DET -114 (52.2% implied). The 6.4pp gap fires market_disagreement_large but the model picks the worse team (15-16 vs 16-16) with worse offense (3.0 RPG, .698 OPS vs 4.8 RPG). Gore's 11.81 K/9 in 5.1 IP is tiny sample noise. Model total of 9.23 vs market 7.5 is a 1.73-run miss; lean under given extreme overestimate.
Large model-market gaptotal far from marketoffense defense mismatch
Projection Context
Projected margin1.1
Projected total9.2
Market total8.0
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context
Market consensus0 / -118TEX / DET moneyline
Run line context-1.0 (+132)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.0O -110 / U -116
32 books30 ML25 run line22 total