MLB / mlb / live
MIL 4 / DET 5MILMilwaukee Brewers42%
DETDetroit Tigers58%
at Comerica Park
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedMILAway starterBrandon Sproat
Model pickDET moneyline58%Model 20260414_1
DETHome starterTarik Skubal
MIL42%ML +190
Base model probability58%Moneyline only
DET58%ML -227
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#1
Total lean · analyst-timeUnder
Model-market gap · analyst-time9.9 pts
Market at 67.5% DET vs model's 57.5% is a huge gap. Skubal's 0.00 ERA in 6 IP is microscopic sample, but market knows something model doesn't. Sproat's 21.00 ERA equally tiny sample. Model's 9.13 total vs market 7.5 is extreme; lean under given Skubal quality and park neutrality.
Large model-market gaptotal far from market
Projection Context
Projected margin0.3
Projected total9.1
Market total7.0
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus+190 / -227MIL / DET moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+100)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.0O -114 / U -106
32 books30 ML25 run line22 total