MLB / mlb / live
MIL 12 / DET 4MILMilwaukee Brewers52%
DETDetroit Tigers48%
at Comerica Park
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedMILAway starterKyle Harrison
Model pickMIL moneyline52%Model 20260414_1
DETHome starterKeider Montero
MIL52%ML -105
Base model probability52%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability49%Selected moneyline pick
DET48%ML -115
Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#7
Total leanNo total lean
Model-market gap3.3 pts
Montero's pitcher data is fallback (4.1 IP across 10 starts is incoherent), Harrison has no resolved stats. Model has MIL at 52.2% vs market 48.9%—a 3.3pp comparison on completely opaque pitcher matchup. The structural uncertainty is too high to take a position.
pitcher data fallback
Projection Context
Projected margin0.4
Projected total9.1
Market total8.5
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context
Market consensus-105 / -115MIL / DET moneyline
Run line context1.0 (-158)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.5O -109 / U -112
31 books29 ML24 run line21 total