MLB / mlb / live
MIL 12 / DET 4MILMilwaukee Brewers52%
DETDetroit Tigers48%
at Comerica Park
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedMILAway starterKyle Harrison
Model pickMIL moneyline52%Model 20260414_1
DETHome starterKeider Montero
MIL52%ML -105
Base model probability52%Moneyline only
DET48%ML -115
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#7
Total lean · analyst-timeNo total lean
Model-market gap · analyst-time3.2 pts
Montero's pitcher data is fallback (4.1 IP across 10 starts is incoherent), Harrison has no resolved stats. Model has MIL at 52.2% vs market 48.9%—a 3.3pp comparison on completely opaque pitcher matchup. The structural uncertainty is too high to take a position.
pitcher data fallback
Projection Context
Projected margin0.4
Projected total9.1
Market total8.5
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus-105 / -115MIL / DET moneyline
Run line context1.0 (-158)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.5O -109 / U -112
31 books29 ML24 run line21 total