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scheduled
ARIArizona Diamondbacks58%
COLColorado Rockies42%

at Coors Field

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
ARIAway starterEduardo RodriguezConfirmed
Model pickARI moneyline58%Model 20260921_auto
COLHome starterTanner GordonConfirmed
ARI58%ML -195
Base model probability58%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability63%Selected moneyline pick
COL42%ML +160

Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#2
Total lean · analyst-timeOver
Model-market gap · analyst-time5.1 pts

Side agrees with market and model: Rodriguez (2.89 ERA, 1.23 WHIP over 183.2 IP) is a clear comparison over Gordon (6.01 ERA, 1.55 WHIP), and ARI's 84-74 record and 4.8 RPG top COL's 57-101 and 3.7. Model's 58.1% is actually more conservative than the market's ~63% on ARI, so no value conflict. Coors at 1.47 park factor plus Gordon's contact profile supports a modest over on 10.0.

extreme park

Projection Context

Projected margin1.3
Projected total11.4
Market total10.0
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Updated
Market
Lines
Eduardo RodriguezARI starter / away
Projected K5.0
Best price at 4.54.5O -130 bovada / U +115 betmgm6 books at this line
Model over 4.556%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.595%
O 2.587%
O 3.573%
O 4.556%
O 5.539%
O 6.525%
O 7.515%
O 8.58%
O 9.54%
O 10.52%
O 11.51%

Model probability that the starter exceeds each strikeout line.

Tanner GordonCOL starter / home
Projected K3.4
Best price at 3.53.5O -106 draftkings / U -110 betmgm7 books at this line
Model over 3.543%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.584%
O 2.564%
O 3.543%
O 4.525%
O 5.513%
O 6.56%
O 7.53%
O 8.51%
O 9.50%
O 10.50%
O 11.50%

Model probability that the starter exceeds each strikeout line.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Market odds · pregame

Market consensus-195 / +160ARI / COL moneyline
Run line context1.5 (+105)Home spread price shown for context
Total context10.0O -110 / U -110
33 books32 ML25 run line24 total