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SEA 2 / COL 1
SEASeattle Mariners57%
COLColorado Rockies43%

at Coors Field

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
SEAAway starterKade AndersonConfirmed
Model pickSEA moneyline57%Model 20260914_auto
COLHome starterTomoyuki SuganoConfirmed
SEA57%ML -164
Base model probability57%Moneyline only
COL43%ML +138

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#3
Total lean · analyst-timeUnder
Model-market gap · analyst-time2.0 pts

Market has SEA around -154 (~59% no-vig) versus the model's 57.4%, so both sides agree; Seattle's .793 OPS and 5.8 RPG against Colorado's .531 OPS is the cleanest comparison here. On the total, the model's 12.03 is driven almost entirely by the Coors park factor SHAP (+1.94), and the market's 10.5 already prices that in. Anderson's 5 starts / 25.1 IP is thin, but Colorado's offense caps the upside.

total far from marketextreme park

Projection Context

Projected margin1.5
Projected total12.1
Market total11.0
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Kade AndersonSEA starter / away
Projected K3.9Actual 7 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +110 betonlineag / U -120 betmgm6 books at this line
Model over 4.535%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.589%over
O 2.573%over
O 3.554%over
O 4.535%over
O 5.520%over
O 6.510%over
O 7.55%under
O 8.52%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 7 strikeouts.

Tomoyuki SuganoCOL starter / home
Projected K4.0Actual 5 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O +105 fanatics / U -125 draftkings7 books at this line
Model over 3.556%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.590%over
O 2.575%over
O 3.556%over
O 4.537%over
O 5.522%under
O 6.512%under
O 7.56%under
O 8.53%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Closing odds

Market consensus-164 / +138SEA / COL moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-110)Home spread price shown for context
Total context11.0O -110 / U -110
33 books32 ML25 run line24 total