MLB / mlb / live
scheduledARIArizona Diamondbacks57%
COLColorado Rockies43%
at Coors Field
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedARIAway starterMerrill KellyProbable
Model pickARI moneyline57%Model 20260921_auto
COLHome starterMason AdamsProbable
ARI57%ML -160
Base model probability57%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability59%Selected moneyline pick
COL43%ML +134
Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.
Projection Context
Projected margin1.1
Projected total11.6
Market total11.5
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Pitcher Strikeout Forecast
UpdatedMarket
Lines
Merrill KellyARI starter / away
Projected K4.1
Best price at 3.53.5O -137 draftkings / U +110 bovada6 books at this line
Model over 3.558%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.591%
O 2.577%
O 3.558%
O 4.539%
O 5.524%
O 6.513%
O 7.56%
O 8.53%
O 9.51%
O 10.50%
O 11.50%
Model probability that the starter exceeds each strikeout line.
Mason AdamsCOL starter / home
Projected K3.6
Best price at 3.53.5O +110 bovada / U -120 betmgm7 books at this line
Model over 3.547%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.586%
O 2.568%
O 3.547%
O 4.529%
O 5.516%
O 6.58%
O 7.53%
O 8.51%
O 9.51%
O 10.50%
O 11.50%
Model probability that the starter exceeds each strikeout line.
Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.
Odds & Market Context Market odds · pregame
Market consensus-160 / +134ARI / COL moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-113)Home spread price shown for context
Total context11.5O -112 / U -112
33 books32 ML25 run line24 total