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SDP 8 / COL 7
SDPSan Diego Padres49%
COLColorado Rockies51%

at Coors Field

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
SDPAway starterCasey MizeConfirmed
Model pickCOL moneyline51%Model 20260914_auto
COLHome starterTomoyuki SuganoConfirmed
SDP49%ML -218
Base model probability51%Moneyline only
COL51%ML +178

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#1
Total lean · analyst-timeNo total lean
Model-market gap · analyst-time13.7 pts

Model's 50.9% on COL sits ~14 points above the market's 37.2% while picking the team with the worse record (55-94 vs 81-68) and a starter at 5.30 ERA against Mize's 3.70/1.11 WHIP. That combination reads as a structural miss, not an comparison. Total: model's 12.78 is driven almost entirely by the 1.47 park factor, but the market's 11.0 already prices Coors, so no view.

Large model-market gaptotal far from marketoffense defense mismatchextreme park

Projection Context

Projected margin0.3
Projected total12.7
Market total11.0
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Casey MizeSDP starter / away
Projected K3.5Actual 0 K / Under 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O -131 draftkings / U +120 betmgm7 books at this line
Model over 3.547%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.586%under
O 2.568%under
O 3.547%under
O 4.528%under
O 5.515%under
O 6.57%under
O 7.53%under
O 8.51%under
O 9.50%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 0 strikeouts.

Tomoyuki SuganoCOL starter / home
Projected K3.8Actual 2 K / Under 2.5
Best price at 2.52.5O -160 betmgm / U +131 draftkings6 books at this line
Model over 2.572%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.589%over
O 2.572%under
O 3.552%under
O 4.534%under
O 5.519%under
O 6.510%under
O 7.55%under
O 8.52%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Closing odds

Market consensus-218 / +178SDP / COL moneyline
Run line context1.5 (+113)Home spread price shown for context
Total context11.0O -115 / U -108
33 books32 ML25 run line24 total