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STL 7 / COL 6
STLSt. Louis Cardinals46%
COLColorado Rockies54%

at Coors Field

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
STLAway starterAndre PallanteConfirmed
Model pickCOL moneyline54%Model 20260831_auto
COLHome starterRyan FeltnerConfirmed
STL46%ML -127
Base model probability54%Moneyline only
COL54%ML +110

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#6
Total lean · analyst-timeOver
Model-market gap · analyst-time7.7 pts

Model takes COL despite a 54-86 record, 3.8 RPG and .531 OPS against a STL club at .812 OPS and 5.2 RPG - a clear offense/defense mismatch. Feltner (5.84 ERA, 1.55 WHIP) vs Pallante (3.57 ERA, 1.24 WHIP) reinforces the away side. Coors at 1.47 PF plus Feltner's baserunner rate supports a modest over on 11.5.

offense defense mismatchextreme park

Projection Context

Projected margin0.1
Projected total12.2
Market total11.0
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Andre PallanteSTL starter / away
Projected K3.4Actual 1 K / Under 2.5
Best price at 2.52.5O -159 betrivers / U +139 betonlineag5 books at this line
Model over 2.566%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.585%under
O 2.566%under
O 3.545%under
O 4.527%under
O 5.514%under
O 6.57%under
O 7.53%under
O 8.51%under
O 9.50%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 1 strikeouts.

Ryan FeltnerCOL starter / home
Projected K3.8Actual 5 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O -142 fanduel / U +125 fanatics5 books at this line
Model over 3.553%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.589%over
O 2.573%over
O 3.553%over
O 4.534%over
O 5.519%under
O 6.510%under
O 7.55%under
O 8.52%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Closing odds

Market consensus-127 / +110STL / COL moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-140)Home spread price shown for context
Total context11.0O -110 / U -112
33 books32 ML25 run line24 total