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TBR 9 / COL 7
TBRTampa Bay Rays58%
COLColorado Rockies42%

at Coors Field

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
TBRAway starterFreddy PeraltaConfirmed
Model pickTBR moneyline58%Model 20260803_auto
COLHome starterGabriel HughesConfirmed
TBR58%ML -175
Base model probability58%Moneyline only
COL42%ML +148

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#2
Total lean · analyst-timeOver
Model-market gap · analyst-time0.9 pts

Model (57.6% TBR) and market (~58% away after vig) agree, so no real comparison on the side; TBR's 66-46 record and .802 OPS back it. On the total, the model's 9.53 sits 1.5 below the 11.0 line despite Coors at 1.47 park factor and Peralta's 4.99 ERA / 1.48 WHIP. Hughes' 3.33 ERA in only 4 starts is thin support for an under.

extreme park

Projection Context

Projected margin0.9
Projected total9.5
Market total10.5
Total leanUnder

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Freddy PeraltaTBR starter / away
Projected K4.4Actual 3 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O +125 betmgm / U -153 draftkings4 books at this line
Model over 5.528%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.592%over
O 2.580%over
O 3.563%under
O 4.544%under
O 5.528%under
O 6.516%under
O 7.58%under
O 8.54%under
O 9.52%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.

Gabriel HughesCOL starter / home
Projected K3.8Actual 7 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O +116 betrivers / U -138 fanduel7 books at this line
Model over 3.553%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.589%over
O 2.573%over
O 3.553%over
O 4.534%over
O 5.520%over
O 6.510%over
O 7.55%under
O 8.52%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 7 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Closing odds

Market consensus-175 / +148TBR / COL moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-107)Home spread price shown for context
Total context10.5O -116 / U -104
32 books31 ML23 run line22 total