MLB / mlb / live
TBR 13 / COL 9TBRTampa Bay Rays58%
COLColorado Rockies42%
at Coors Field
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedTBRAway starterIan SeymourConfirmed
Model pickTBR moneyline58%Model 20260803_auto
COLHome starterMichael LorenzenConfirmed
TBR58%ML -185
Base model probability58%Moneyline only
COL42%ML +154
Projection Context
Projected margin1.3
Projected total9.7
Market total11.5
Total leanUnder
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Pitcher Strikeout Forecast
Final / frozen pregame forecast / UpdatedMarket
Lines
Ian SeymourTBR starter / away
Projected K4.1Actual 9 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -146 fanduel / U +120 bovada5 books at this line
Model over 4.539%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.591%over
O 2.576%over
O 3.558%over
O 4.539%over
O 5.523%over
O 6.513%over
O 7.56%over
O 8.53%over
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 9 strikeouts.
Michael LorenzenCOL starter / home
Projected K3.6Actual 0 K / Under 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O +136 draftkings / U -155 betmgm5 books at this line
Model over 3.548%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.587%under
O 2.569%under
O 3.548%under
O 4.530%under
O 5.516%under
O 6.58%under
O 7.54%under
O 8.51%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 0 strikeouts.
Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus-185 / +154TBR / COL moneyline
Run line context1.5 (+104)Home spread price shown for context
Total context11.5O -105 / U -115
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total