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scheduled
KCRKansas City Royals51%
COLColorado Rockies49%

at Coors Field

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
KCRAway starterMichael WachaProbable
Model pickKCR moneyline51%Model 20260727_auto
COLHome starterTomoyuki SuganoProbable
KCR51%ML -110
Base model probability51%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability50%Selected moneyline pick
COL49%ML -109

Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#2
Total leanOver
Model-market gap0.7 pts

Model predicts 12.63 total vs market 11.0 in Coors (PF 1.47). The park factor dominates SHAP for total (+1.096), which is correct. Market at pick'em suggests coin flip on side; KCR's Wacha (3.60 ERA, 1.17 WHIP) has comparison over Sugano (4.69 ERA, 1.29 WHIP) at altitude. Lean KCR and over per model's Coors adjustment.

total far from marketextreme park

Projection Context

Projected margin0.3
Projected total9.8
Market total11.0
Total leanUnder

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Updated
Market
Michael WachaKCR starter / away
Projected K4.3
Market lineN/ANo two-sided pregame line
Model over lineN/A
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.592%
O 2.579%
O 3.562%
O 4.543%
O 5.527%
O 6.515%
O 7.58%
O 8.54%
O 9.52%
O 10.51%
O 11.50%

Model probability that the starter exceeds each strikeout line.

Tomoyuki SuganoCOL starter / home
Projected K3.6
Market lineN/ANo two-sided pregame line
Model over lineN/A
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.587%
O 2.569%
O 3.548%
O 4.530%
O 5.516%
O 6.58%
O 7.54%
O 8.51%
O 9.51%
O 10.50%
O 11.50%

Model probability that the starter exceeds each strikeout line.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context

Market consensus-110 / -109KCR / COL moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-155)Home spread price shown for context
Total context11.0O -115 / U -105
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total