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WSN 8 / COL 0
WSNWashington Nationals54%
COLColorado Rockies46%

at Coors Field

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
WSNAway starterCade CavalliConfirmed
Model pickWSN moneyline54%Model 20260720_auto
COLHome starterGabriel HughesConfirmed
WSN54%ML -148
Base model probability54%Moneyline only
COL46%ML +124

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#1
Total lean · analyst-timeUnder
Model-market gap · analyst-time2.5 pts

Model predicts 8.75 runs at Coors Field (PF 1.47) while market sets 11.5. This is a 2.75-run structural miss. The model systematically underweights park effects in extreme venues. WSN's 6.2 RPG offense vs COL's 4.1 RPG in a hitter's park should push totals well over 11. Agree on WSN side (market implies 57%, model 54%), but lean under the market total of 11.5, not the model's 8.75.

total far from marketextreme park

Projection Context

Projected margin0.5
Projected total8.7
Market total11.5
Total leanUnder

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Cade CavalliWSN starter / away
Projected K4.8Actual 8 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O +116 betonlineag / U -143 draftkings6 books at this line
Model over 5.534%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.594%over
O 2.584%over
O 3.569%over
O 4.551%over
O 5.534%over
O 6.521%over
O 7.512%over
O 8.56%under
O 9.53%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 8 strikeouts.

Gabriel HughesCOL starter / home
Projected K4.5Actual 5 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +116 fanduel / U -140 fanatics4 books at this line
Model over 4.546%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.593%over
O 2.582%over
O 3.565%over
O 4.546%over
O 5.530%under
O 6.518%under
O 7.59%under
O 8.55%under
O 9.52%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Closing odds

Market consensus-148 / +124WSN / COL moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-120)Home spread price shown for context
Total context11.5O -108 / U -113
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total