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CIN 3 / COL 10
CINCincinnati Reds55%
COLColorado Rockies45%

at Coors Field

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
CINAway starterRhett LowderConfirmed
Model pickCIN moneyline55%Model 20260713_auto
COLHome starterTomoyuki SuganoConfirmed
CIN55%ML -116
Base model probability55%Moneyline only
COL45%ML +100

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#5
Total lean · analyst-timeUnder
Model-market gap · analyst-time4.2 pts

Model has CIN 54.9%, market nearly even at 49.3% home. Coors inflates the total but model's 11.77 vs market 13.0 is a 1.23-run gap—model sees pitchers suppressing Coors effect. Sugano 4.80 ERA and Lowder 4.91 ERA are both mediocre; lean CIN's superior .629 OPS offense but keep confidence low in extreme park.

extreme park

Projection Context

Projected margin0.8
Projected total9.6
Market total12.5
Total leanUnder

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Rhett LowderCIN starter / away
Projected K3.5Actual 2 K / Under 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O +123 betrivers / U -148 fanduel4 books at this line
Model over 3.547%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.586%over
O 2.568%under
O 3.547%under
O 4.528%under
O 5.515%under
O 6.57%under
O 7.53%under
O 8.51%under
O 9.50%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.

Tomoyuki SuganoCOL starter / home
Projected K3.4Actual 3 K / Over 2.5
Best price at 2.52.5O -162 betrivers / U +136 draftkings5 books at this line
Model over 2.566%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.585%over
O 2.566%over
O 3.544%under
O 4.526%under
O 5.514%under
O 6.56%under
O 7.53%under
O 8.51%under
O 9.50%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Closing odds

Market consensus-116 / +100CIN / COL moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-150)Home spread price shown for context
Total context12.5O -108 / U -112
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total