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CIN 7 / COL 2
CINCincinnati Reds45%
COLColorado Rockies55%

at Coors Field

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
CINAway starterBrady SingerConfirmed
Model pickCOL moneyline55%Model 20260713_auto
COLHome starterGabriel HughesConfirmed
CIN45%ML -105
Base model probability55%Moneyline only
COL55%ML -114

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#7
Total lean · analyst-timeUnder
Model-market gap · analyst-time3.9 pts

Hughes has 9.0 IP in one start; model cannot reliably project his performance at Coors. Market total 12.0 vs model 10.88 reflects Coors premium. Singer's 4.72 ERA and 1.47 WHIP suggest vulnerability in extreme park, but Hughes' single-start sample makes both side and total unpredictable. Under lean purely on market overreaction to park factor.

extreme park

Projection Context

Projected margin0.4
Projected total8.8
Market total12.0
Total leanUnder

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Brady SingerCIN starter / away
Projected K4.8Actual 6 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +118 fanduel / U -147 draftkings4 books at this line
Model over 4.552%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.595%over
O 2.585%over
O 3.570%over
O 4.552%over
O 5.535%over
O 6.522%under
O 7.512%under
O 8.56%under
O 9.53%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.

Gabriel HughesCOL starter / home
Projected K5.1Actual 6 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +110 betmgm / U -118 betrivers6 books at this line
Model over 4.557%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.596%over
O 2.587%over
O 3.574%over
O 4.557%over
O 5.541%over
O 6.526%under
O 7.516%under
O 8.59%under
O 9.54%under
O 10.52%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Closing odds

Market consensus-105 / -114CIN / COL moneyline
Run line context1.0 (-143)Home spread price shown for context
Total context12.0O -113 / U -105
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total