MLB / mlb / live
MIA 4 / COL 14MIAMiami Marlins54%
COLColorado Rockies46%
at Coors Field
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedMIAAway starterRyan GustoConfirmed
Model pickMIA moneyline54%Model 20260629_auto
COLHome starterMichael LorenzenConfirmed
MIA54%ML -135
Base model probability54%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability55%Selected moneyline pick
COL46%ML +113
Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.
Projection Context
Projected margin0.4
Projected total9.6
Market total12.5
Total leanUnder
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Pitcher Strikeout Forecast
Final / frozen pregame forecast / UpdatedMarket
Lines
Ryan GustoMIA starter / away
Projected K3.5Actual 2 K / Under 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O -108 fanduel / U -104 betrivers6 books at this line
Model over 3.546%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.586%over
O 2.567%under
O 3.546%under
O 4.528%under
O 5.515%under
O 6.57%under
O 7.53%under
O 8.51%under
O 9.50%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.
Michael LorenzenCOL starter / home
Projected K4.2Actual 1 K / Under 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O -120 fanatics / U +101 draftkings7 books at this line
Model over 3.560%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.592%under
O 2.578%under
O 3.560%under
O 4.541%under
O 5.525%under
O 6.514%under
O 7.57%under
O 8.53%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 1 strikeouts.
Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.
Odds & Market Context
Market consensus-135 / +113MIA / COL moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-130)Home spread price shown for context
Total context12.5O -105 / U -115
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total