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MIA 3 / COL 6
MIAMiami Marlins47%
COLColorado Rockies53%

at Coors Field

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
MIAAway starterMax MeyerConfirmed
Model pickCOL moneyline53%Model 20260629_auto
COLHome starterKyle FreelandConfirmed
MIA47%ML -145
Base model probability53%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability43%Selected moneyline pick
COL53%ML +122

Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#1
Total leanUnder
Model-market gap9.8 pts

Model has COL 53% despite 33-52 record vs MIA 45-40. Market heavily favors MIA (61% implied) which makes more sense given Meyer's 2.6 ERA vs Freeland's 7.5 ERA. Coors inflates total projections but Meyer should suppress COL's weak offense (.531 OPS). Model's 10.81 under market 11.0 supports under lean.

Large model-market gapextreme park

Projection Context

Projected margin0.2
Projected total9.9
Market total11.0
Total leanUnder

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Max MeyerMIA starter / away
Projected K5.5Actual 5 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O -135 bovada / U +120 betonlineag7 books at this line
Model over 5.547%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.597%over
O 2.590%over
O 3.579%over
O 4.564%over
O 5.547%under
O 6.532%under
O 7.520%under
O 8.512%under
O 9.56%under
O 10.53%under
O 11.52%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.

Kyle FreelandCOL starter / home
Projected K4.2Actual 7 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O -130 betonlineag / U +118 betrivers6 books at this line
Model over 3.560%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.591%over
O 2.578%over
O 3.560%over
O 4.541%over
O 5.525%over
O 6.514%over
O 7.57%under
O 8.53%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 7 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context

Market consensus-145 / +122MIA / COL moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-115)Home spread price shown for context
Total context11.0O -110 / U -110
32 books31 ML23 run line22 total