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MIA 14 / COL 3
MIAMiami Marlins56%
COLColorado Rockies44%

at Coors Field

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
MIAAway starterEury PérezConfirmed
Model pickMIA moneyline56%Model 20260629_auto
COLHome starterTanner GordonConfirmed
MIA56%ML -136
Base model probability56%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability55%Selected moneyline pick
COL44%ML +116

Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#1
Total leanUnder
Model-market gap0.5 pts

Model and market converge on MIA (model 56%, market 58%). Coors inflates the model's 9.64 total vs market 11.5; park_factor dominates SHAP at +3.4. Gordon's 6.37 ERA in 35 IP argues for MIA offense, but Pérez (4.41 ERA, 9.76 K/9) can suppress COL's .531 OPS. Lean under the market total despite Coors.

total far from marketextreme park

Projection Context

Projected margin1.1
Projected total10.0
Market total11.0
Total leanUnder

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Eury PérezMIA starter / away
Projected K4.7Actual 8 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O +125 bovada / U -149 draftkings7 books at this line
Model over 5.534%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.594%over
O 2.584%over
O 3.568%over
O 4.550%over
O 5.534%over
O 6.520%over
O 7.511%over
O 8.56%under
O 9.53%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 8 strikeouts.

Tanner GordonCOL starter / home
Projected K3.5Actual 4 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O +135 betmgm / U -144 draftkings6 books at this line
Model over 3.545%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.585%over
O 2.566%over
O 3.545%over
O 4.527%under
O 5.514%under
O 6.57%under
O 7.53%under
O 8.51%under
O 9.50%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context

Market consensus-136 / +116MIA / COL moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-130)Home spread price shown for context
Total context11.0O -115 / U -105
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total