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BOS 6 / COL 8
BOSBoston Red Sox58%
COLColorado Rockies42%

at Coors Field

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
BOSAway starterRanger SuarezConfirmed
Model pickBOS moneyline58%Model 20260622_auto
COLHome starterKyle FreelandConfirmed
BOS58%ML -166
Base model probability58%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability60%Selected moneyline pick
COL42%ML +141

Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#1
Total leanUnder
Model-market gap1.8 pts

BOS at -161 (61% implied) vs model 58% is reasonable convergence. Freeland's 7.36 ERA in 66 IP is not park-noise—he's been bad. Suarez 2.93 ERA, 1.12 WHIP over 76 IP is real. Market total 11.0 vs model 10.45 both account for Coors (PF 1.47). Lean under: Suarez suppresses COL's anemic .531 OPS offense, and BOS 1.4 RPG season line suggests their bats are broken regardless of venue.

extreme park

Projection Context

Projected margin0.9
Projected total9.4
Market total10.5
Total leanUnder

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Ranger SuarezBOS starter / away
Projected K5.0Actual 9 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -155 draftkings / U +121 draftkings5 books at this line
Model over 4.556%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.595%over
O 2.587%over
O 3.573%over
O 4.556%over
O 5.539%over
O 6.525%over
O 7.515%over
O 8.58%over
O 9.54%under
O 10.52%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 9 strikeouts.

Kyle FreelandCOL starter / home
Projected K4.3Actual 4 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +140 bovada / U -150 fanatics4 books at this line
Model over 4.543%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.592%over
O 2.579%over
O 3.561%over
O 4.543%under
O 5.527%under
O 6.515%under
O 7.58%under
O 8.54%under
O 9.52%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context

Market consensus-166 / +141BOS / COL moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-106)Home spread price shown for context
Total context10.5O -115 / U -105
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total