MLB / mlb / live
PIT 8 / COL 6PITPittsburgh Pirates51%
COLColorado Rockies49%
at Coors Field
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedPITAway starterJared JonesConfirmed
Model pickPIT moneyline51%Model 20260616_auto
COLHome starterMichael LorenzenConfirmed
PIT51%ML -147
Base model probability51%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability57%Selected moneyline pick
COL49%ML +124
Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.
Projection Context
Projected margin0.3
Projected total9.7
Market total11.5
Total leanUnder
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Pitcher Strikeout Forecast
Final / frozen pregame forecast / UpdatedMarket
Lines
Jared JonesPIT starter / away
Projected K4.6Actual 3 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O +134 betonlineag / U -162 betrivers5 books at this line
Model over 5.531%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.594%over
O 2.582%over
O 3.566%under
O 4.548%under
O 5.531%under
O 6.519%under
O 7.510%under
O 8.55%under
O 9.52%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.
Michael LorenzenCOL starter / home
Projected K4.4Actual 5 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O -142 fanduel / U +120 betmgm7 books at this line
Model over 3.564%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.593%over
O 2.581%over
O 3.564%over
O 4.545%over
O 5.529%under
O 6.517%under
O 7.59%under
O 8.54%under
O 9.52%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.
Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.
Odds & Market Context
Market consensus-147 / +124PIT / COL moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-120)Home spread price shown for context
Total context11.5O -108 / U -112
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total