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PIT 3 / COL 4
PITPittsburgh Pirates49%
COLColorado Rockies51%

at Coors Field

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
PITAway starterBubba ChandlerConfirmed
Model pickCOL moneyline51%Model 20260616_auto
COLHome starterKyle FreelandConfirmed
PIT49%ML -140
Base model probability51%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability44%Selected moneyline pick
COL51%ML +118

Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#4
Total leanUnder
Model-market gap7.5 pts

Model sees Coors coin flip; market leans PIT at 55.8%. Freeland's 7.98 ERA in 58.7 IP is genuine trouble. Model predicts 9.3 runs vs market 11.5—park factor 1.47 demands higher total. Disagree with model's low total; lean PIT on side but confidence reduced by Coors randomness.

total far from marketextreme park

Projection Context

Projected margin0.1
Projected total9.3
Market total11.5
Total leanUnder

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Bubba ChandlerPIT starter / away
Projected K4.4Actual 1 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -125 draftkings / U +106 fanduel7 books at this line
Model over 4.544%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.593%under
O 2.580%under
O 3.563%under
O 4.544%under
O 5.528%under
O 6.516%under
O 7.58%under
O 8.54%under
O 9.52%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 1 strikeouts.

Kyle FreelandCOL starter / home
Projected K4.5Actual 8 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O -150 fanduel / U +125 betrivers5 books at this line
Model over 3.564%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.593%over
O 2.581%over
O 3.564%over
O 4.546%over
O 5.529%over
O 6.517%over
O 7.59%over
O 8.54%under
O 9.52%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 8 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context

Market consensus-140 / +118PIT / COL moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-125)Home spread price shown for context
Total context11.5O -105 / U -118
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total