MLB / mlb / live
CHC 3 / COL 7CHCChicago Cubs60%
COLColorado Rockies40%
at Coors Field
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedCHCAway starterColin Rea
Model pickCHC moneyline60%Model 20260414_1
COLHome starterTomoyuki Sugano
CHC60%ML -164
Base model probability60%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability59%Selected moneyline pick
COL40%ML +135
Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#2
Total leanUnder
Model-market gap0.8 pts
Market and model align on CHC (Pinnacle 59.4%, model 60.2%). Model projects 9.71 runs vs market 12.5 — a 2.8-run gap at Coors (PF 1.47) is massive. Park factor is the top total driver (+2.157 SHAP) but model still lands 2.8R under market. COL's .531 OPS is bottom-tier; CHC allows just 3.8 RPG. Lean under market total, side is coin flip.
total far from marketextreme park
Projection Context
Projected margin2.0
Projected total9.7
Market total12.5
Total leanUnder
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context
Market consensus-164 / +135CHC / COL moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-110)Home spread price shown for context
Total context12.5O -110 / U -110
32 books31 ML23 run line22 total