MLB / mlb / live
CHC 3 / COL 7CHCChicago Cubs60%
COLColorado Rockies40%
at Coors Field
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedCHCAway starterColin Rea
Model pickCHC moneyline60%Model 20260414_1
COLHome starterTomoyuki Sugano
CHC60%ML -164
Base model probability60%Moneyline only
COL40%ML +135
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#2
Total lean · analyst-timeUnder
Model-market gap · analyst-time2.0 pts
Market and model align on CHC (Pinnacle 59.4%, model 60.2%). Model projects 9.71 runs vs market 12.5 — a 2.8-run gap at Coors (PF 1.47) is massive. Park factor is the top total driver (+2.157 SHAP) but model still lands 2.8R under market. COL's .531 OPS is bottom-tier; CHC allows just 3.8 RPG. Lean under market total, side is coin flip.
total far from marketextreme park
Projection Context
Projected margin2.0
Projected total9.7
Market total12.5
Total leanUnder
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus-164 / +135CHC / COL moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-110)Home spread price shown for context
Total context12.5O -110 / U -110
32 books31 ML23 run line22 total