MLB / mlb / live
CHC 2 / COL 3CHCChicago Cubs59%
COLColorado Rockies41%
at Coors Field
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedCHCAway starterShota Imanaga
Model pickCHC moneyline59%Model 20260414_1
COLHome starterMichael Lorenzen
CHC59%ML -176
Base model probability59%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability61%Selected moneyline pick
COL41%ML +145
Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#3
Total leanUnder
Model-market gap2.3 pts
Model predicts 9.51 runs at Coors (PF 1.47), market sets 12.5. That 3-run gap is the park adjustment failing: model underweights extreme venue effects. Imanaga's 4.74 ERA and 1.08 WHIP vs Lorenzen's 8.01 ERA and 1.99 WHIP supports CHC side. Market implies 60.5% CHC, model has 58.6% — convergence validates the pick. Total should lean under market's inflated Coors number.
total far from marketextreme park
Projection Context
Projected margin1.7
Projected total9.5
Market total11.5
Total leanUnder
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context
Market consensus-176 / +145CHC / COL moneyline
Run line context1.5 (+100)Home spread price shown for context
Total context11.5O -116 / U -105
32 books31 ML23 run line22 total