MLB / mlb / live
MIL 12 / COL 4MILMilwaukee Brewers59%
COLColorado Rockies41%
at Coors Field
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedMILAway starterShane Drohan
Model pickMIL moneyline59%Model 20260414_1
COLHome starterKyle Freeland
MIL59%ML -188
Base model probability59%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability63%Selected moneyline pick
COL41%ML +158
Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#2
Total leanUnder
Model-market gap4.1 pts
Model has MIL at 58.6%, market implies 62.0% — reasonable convergence. Coors Field (PF 1.47) screams over but model predicts 9.28 vs market 12.0, a 2.72-run gap. Drohan has no season stats (2 GS, null IP/ERA), Freeland's 4.1 IP over 10 GS signals injury/opener usage. Model likely underweighting Coors effect; lean under the inflated market total.
total far from marketextreme park
Projection Context
Projected margin1.7
Projected total9.3
Market total11.5
Total leanUnder
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context
Market consensus-188 / +158MIL / COL moneyline
Run line context1.5 (+105)Home spread price shown for context
Total context11.5O -111 / U -110
32 books31 ML23 run line22 total