MLB / mlb / live
MIL 9 / COL 7MILMilwaukee Brewers46%
COLColorado Rockies54%
at Coors Field
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedMILAway starterBrandon Sproat
Model pickCOL moneyline54%Model 20260414_1
COLHome starterRyan Feltner
MIL46%ML -157
Base model probability54%Moneyline only
COL54%ML +130
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#1
Total lean · analyst-timeOver
Model-market gap · analyst-time12.4 pts
Model badly misreads Coors. Market total 12.0 vs model 9.03 — park factor 1.47 screams over. Sproat's 21.0 ERA in 3 IP is noise but MIL offense (.972 OPS) vs COL pitching at altitude is real comparison. Market has MIL -150, model has COL favored — structural miss on venue impact.
Large model-market gaptotal far from marketextreme park
Projection Context
Projected margin0.2
Projected total9.0
Market total12.0
Total leanUnder
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus-157 / +130MIL / COL moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-115)Home spread price shown for context
Total context12.0O -112 / U -109
32 books31 ML23 run line22 total