MLB / mlb / live
SFG 19 / COL 6SFGSan Francisco Giants42%
COLColorado Rockies58%
at Coors Field
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedSFGAway starterRobbie Ray
Model pickCOL moneyline58%Model 20260414_1
COLHome starterTanner Gordon
SFG42%ML -113
Base model probability58%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability49%Selected moneyline pick
COL58%ML -105
Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#6
Total leanUnder
Model-market gap8.4 pts
Model has COL at 57.5% vs market 47.7% — a 10pp gap at Coors with Gordon's missing peripherals is suspect. SFG road team with better offense (4.6 RPG vs 3.9). Model total 9.3 runs vs market 11.0 is massive divergence; Coors PF 1.47 argues higher, but Gordon unknown + Ray's 3.38 ERA suggests under the inflated market line.
Large model-market gaptotal far from marketoffense defense mismatchextreme park
Projection Context
Projected margin0.4
Projected total9.3
Market total11.0
Total leanUnder
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context
Market consensus-113 / -105SFG / COL moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-155)Home spread price shown for context
Total context11.0O -110 / U -110
31 books30 ML23 run line22 total