MLB / mlb / live
SFG 19 / COL 6SFGSan Francisco Giants42%
COLColorado Rockies58%
at Coors Field
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedSFGAway starterRobbie Ray
Model pickCOL moneyline58%Model 20260414_1
COLHome starterTanner Gordon
SFG42%ML -113
Base model probability58%Moneyline only
COL58%ML -105
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#6
Total lean · analyst-timeUnder
Model-market gap · analyst-time9.9 pts
Model has COL at 57.5% vs market 47.7% — a 10pp gap at Coors with Gordon's missing peripherals is suspect. SFG road team with better offense (4.6 RPG vs 3.9). Model total 9.3 runs vs market 11.0 is massive divergence; Coors PF 1.47 argues higher, but Gordon unknown + Ray's 3.38 ERA suggests under the inflated market line.
Large model-market gaptotal far from marketoffense defense mismatchextreme park
Projection Context
Projected margin0.4
Projected total9.3
Market total11.0
Total leanUnder
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus-113 / -105SFG / COL moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-155)Home spread price shown for context
Total context11.0O -110 / U -110
31 books30 ML23 run line22 total