MLB / mlb / live
ARI 2 / COL 4ARIArizona Diamondbacks59%
COLColorado Rockies41%
at Coors Field
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedARIAway starterEduardo Rodriguez
Model pickARI moneyline59%Model 20260414_1
COLHome starterTomoyuki Sugano
ARI59%ML -143
Base model probability59%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability56%Selected moneyline pick
COL41%ML +120
Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#3
Total leanUnder
Model-market gap2.2 pts
Model total of 9.47 vs market 11.0 is a 1.5-run gap at Coors (PF 1.47). Model likely underweighting park; however Rodriguez's 0.00 ERA in 5 IP is tiny sample noise. Sugano stats are null despite 10 starts—data issue suggests caution. Market's higher total makes more sense given venue. Lean ARI on side, under the inflated market total.
total far from marketextreme park
Projection Context
Projected margin1.5
Projected total9.5
Market total11.5
Total leanUnder
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context
Market consensus-143 / +120ARI / COL moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-125)Home spread price shown for context
Total context11.5O +100 / U -120
32 books31 ML24 run line23 total