MLB / mlb / live
NYM 2 / COL 6NYMNew York Mets55%
COLColorado Rockies45%
at Coors Field
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedNYMAway starterChristian Scott
Model pickNYM moneyline55%Model 20260414_1
COLHome starterJose Quintana
NYM55%ML -152
Base model probability55%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability58%Selected moneyline pick
COL45%ML +128
Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#4
Total leanUnder
Model-market gap2.7 pts
Model predicts 9.44 runs at Coors (PF 1.47), market set at 11.0. The 1.56-run gap flags structural underweight of park factor. Scott's missing season stats create total uncertainty. NYM pick at lean confidence: model/market agree on side (~55% vs Pinnacle 58%), but Coors totals demand caution when pitcher data incomplete.
total far from marketextreme park
Projection Context
Projected margin0.7
Projected total9.4
Market total11.0
Total leanUnder
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context
Market consensus-152 / +128NYM / COL moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-122)Home spread price shown for context
Total context11.0O -105 / U -114
32 books30 ML25 run line22 total