MLB / mlb / live
NYM 4 / COL 2NYMNew York Mets59%
COLColorado Rockies41%
at Coors Field
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedNYMAway starterHuascar Brazobán
Model pickNYM moneyline59%Model 20260414_1
COLHome starterTomoyuki Sugano
NYM59%ML -144
Base model probability59%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability57%Selected moneyline pick
COL41%ML +123
Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#3
Total leanUnder
Model-market gap1.8 pts
Away pitcher TBD kills confidence but NYM's .736 OPS vs COL's .531 is decisive. Model at 58.6% vs market 56.4% shows convergence. Extreme Coors park factor (1.47) drives model's 9.63 total but market at 11.0 is much higher—lean under given pitcher uncertainty and market's elevation premium already baked in.
pitcher data fallbackextreme park
Projection Context
Projected margin1.6
Projected total9.5
Market total10.5
Total leanUnder
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context
Market consensus-144 / +123NYM / COL moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-125)Home spread price shown for context
Total context10.5O -118 / U -105
30 books28 ML22 run line20 total