MLB / mlb / live
ATL 11 / COL 6ATLAtlanta Braves59%
COLColorado Rockies41%
at Coors Field
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedATLAway starterSpencer Strider
Model pickATL moneyline59%Model 20260414_1
COLHome starterKyle Freeland
ATL59%ML -164
Base model probability59%Moneyline only
COL41%ML +140
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#1
Total lean · analyst-timeOver
Model-market gap · analyst-time1.2 pts
Strider fallback data (0.00 ERA, 6.0 IP) is obviously incomplete; real signal unclear. ATL's 24-10 record and .789 OPS vs COL's .531 OPS is the cleanest comparison. Coors 1.47 park factor plus fallback pitcher uncertainty means lean over on the 10.5 total. Model under-prices park effect at 9.39.
pitcher data fallbackextreme park
Projection Context
Projected margin1.3
Projected total9.4
Market total10.5
Total leanUnder
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus-164 / +140ATL / COL moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-110)Home spread price shown for context
Total context10.5O -108 / U -112
32 books30 ML25 run line22 total