MLB / mlb / live
SDP 3 / COL 8SDPSan Diego Padres59%
COLColorado Rockies41%
at Coors Field
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedSDPAway starterWalker Buehler
Model pickSDP moneyline59%Model 20260414_1
COLHome starterTomoyuki Sugano
SDP59%ML -158
Base model probability59%Moneyline only
COL41%ML +132
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#7
Total lean · analyst-timeUnder
Model-market gap · analyst-time0.2 pts
Market SDP 59.5% vs model 58.6% - close call. Buehler at Coors is concerning but SDP offense (4.4 RPG, .547 OPS) vs COL (3.4 RPG, .531 OPS) tilts away. Model total 9.58 runs is 2.4 under market 12.0 - massive gap at extreme park. Lean under on inflated Coors total.
total far from marketextreme park
Projection Context
Projected margin1.1
Projected total9.6
Market total12.0
Total leanUnder
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus-158 / +132SDP / COL moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-112)Home spread price shown for context
Total context12.0O -115 / U -105
32 books30 ML25 run line22 total