MLB / mlb / live
SDP 10 / COL 8SDPSan Diego Padres58%
COLColorado Rockies42%
at Coors Field
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedSDPAway starterMatt Waldron
Model pickSDP moneyline58%Model 20260414_1
COLHome starterRyan Feltner
SDP58%ML -154
Base model probability58%Moneyline only
COL42%ML +129
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#4
Total lean · analyst-timeUnder
Model-market gap · analyst-time0.5 pts
Model total of 9.42 is 1.58 runs under market's 11.0 at Coors (PF 1.47). Waldron data is fallback, limiting conviction. SDP's 16-8 record vs COL's 10-15 supports away side but model underweights extreme park effect. Market knows Coors better than model's 9.42 suggests; lean under the inflated 11.0.
pitcher data fallbacktotal far from marketextreme park
Projection Context
Projected margin1.1
Projected total9.4
Market total11.0
Total leanUnder
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus-154 / +129SDP / COL moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-120)Home spread price shown for context
Total context11.0O -110 / U -110
32 books30 ML25 run line21 total