MLB / mlb / live
SDP 1 / COL 0SDPSan Diego Padres53%
COLColorado Rockies47%
at Coors Field
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedSDPAway starterRandy Vásquez
Model pickSDP moneyline53%Model 20260414_1
COLHome starterJimmy Herget
SDP53%ML -145
Base model probability53%Moneyline only
COL47%ML +120
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rankUnranked
Total lean · analyst-timeNo total lean
Model-market gap · analyst-time2.0 pts
Model has SDP 58.6%, market implies 56.6% — close alignment. COL pitcher is TBD with 4.1 IP fallback data; structural uncertainty dominates. Coors PF 1.47 is extreme but model total (9.48) is 1.5 runs under market (11.0), suggesting model underweights park. Pass on total given pitcher uncertainty and conflicting signals.
pitcher data fallbacktotal far from marketextreme park
Projection Context
Projected margin0.4
Projected total9.3
Market total11.0
Total leanUnder
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus-145 / +120SDP / COL moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-125)Home spread price shown for context
Total context11.0O -110 / U -110
28 books26 ML21 run line18 total