MLB / mlb / live
LAD 6 / COL 9LADLos Angeles Dodgers56%
COLColorado Rockies44%
at Coors Field
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedLADAway starterRoki Sasaki
Model pickLAD moneyline56%Model 20260414_1
COLHome starterMichael Lorenzen
LAD56%ML -290
Base model probability56%Moneyline only
COL44%ML +230
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#2
Total lean · analyst-timeOver
Model-market gap · analyst-time15.5 pts
Market has LAD at 73% implied vs model's 56%—market is right here. Coors Field (PF 1.47) is driving the 11.5 total; model's 9.34 is a structural miss on park effects. Sasaki missing all stats is concerning but LAD's .743 OPS vs COL's .531 is decisive. Take LAD and over.
Large model-market gaptotal far from marketextreme park
Projection Context
Projected margin0.8
Projected total9.3
Market total11.5
Total leanUnder
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus-290 / +230LAD / COL moneyline
Run line context1.5 (+142)Home spread price shown for context
Total context11.5O -114 / U -106
30 books28 ML23 run line20 total